The biggest state swings in the 2026 midterms

Winning margin in percentage points in 2024 presidential election v 2026 Senate election

2024

2026

Dem

+40pts

Dem

+20pts

Winning

margin

Rep

+20pts

Texas

Rhode Island

North Carolina

Mississippi

South Carolina

New Jersey

Kansas

New Mexico

Louisiana

Georgia

2024

2026

Dem

+40pts

Dem

+20pts

Winning

margin

Rep

+20pts

Texas

Rhode Island

North Carolina

Mississippi

South Carolina

New Jersey

Kansas

New Mexico

Louisiana

Georgia

2024

2026

Dem

+40pts

Dem

+20pts

Winning

margin

Rep

+20pts

Texas

Rhode Island

North Carolina

Mississippi

South Carolina

New Jersey

Kansas

New Mexico

Louisiana

Georgia

2024

2026

Dem

+40pts

Dem

+20pts

Winning

margin

Rep

+20pts

Texas

Rhode Island

North Carolina

Mississippi

South Carolina

New Jersey

Kansas

New Mexico

Louisiana

Georgia

2024

2026

Dem

+40pts

Dem

+20pts

Winning

margin

Rep

+20pts

Texas

Rhode Island

North Carolina

Mississippi

South Carolina

New Jersey

Kansas

New Mexico

Louisiana

Georgia

2024

2026

Dem

+40pts

Dem

+20pts

Winning

margin

Rep

+20pts

Texas

Rhode Island

North Carolina

Mississippi

South Carolina

New Jersey

Kansas

New Mexico

Louisiana

Georgia

2024

2026

Dem

+40pts

Dem

+20pts

Winning

margin

Rep

+20pts

Texas

Rhode Island

North Carolina

Mississippi

South Carolina

New Jersey

Kansas

New Mexico

Louisiana

Georgia

2024

2026

Dem

+40pts

Dem

+20pts

Winning

margin

Rep

+20pts

Texas

Rhode Island

North Carolina

Mississippi

South Carolina

New Jersey

Kansas

New Mexico

Louisiana

Georgia

Guardian graphic. Source: AP, MIT. Note: some 2026 data based on incomplete vote count