Projected additional heat deaths linked to El Niño

Forecast additional heat-related deaths in Sep 2026 to Feb 2027 compared with 1996-2025

Brazil

13,271

Nigeria

31,320

Sudan

17,430

India

15,670

Indonesia

19,251

Nigeria

31,320

Forecast additional heat-related deaths in Sep 2026 to Feb 2027 compared to 1996-2025

Brazil

13,271

Nigeria

31,320

Sudan

17,430

India

15,670

Indonesia

19,251

Nigeria

31,320

Sudan

17,430

India

15,670

Indonesia

19,251

Brazil

13,271

Nigeria

31,320

Brazil

13,271

Nigeria

31,320

Sudan

17,430

India

15,670

Indonesia

19,251

Nigeria

31,320

Forecast additional heat-related deaths in Sep 2026 to Feb 2027 compared to 1996-2025

Brazil

13,271

Nigeria

31,320

Sudan

17,430

India

15,670

Indonesia

19,251

Nigeria

31,320

Sudan

17,430

India

15,670

Indonesia

19,251

Brazil

13,271

Nigeria

31,320

Guardian graphic. Source: Climate Lab. Note: data includes separate figure for Jammu and Kashmir