The Iran war risks triggering a global recession
% global growth, April 2026 forecast
January 2026 forecast
Reference
forecast
War disruption
fades by mid-
2026
Adverse
scenario
Prolonged
disruption, oil
prices at $100
in 2026 and
$75 in 2027
Severe
scenario
Persistent
shock, oil at
$110 into 2027
4
3
3.1
Down
1.3 pts
2.5
2
2.0
1
0
2025
2026
2027
2026
2026
% global growth, April 2026 forecast
January 2026 forecast
Reference forecast
War disruption
fades by mid-2026
Adverse scenario
Prolonged
disruption, oil prices
at $100 in 2026 and
$75 in 2027
Severe scenario
Persistent shock,
oil prices at $110
into 2027
4
3
3.1
Down
1.3 pts
2.5
2
2.0
1
0
2025
2026
2027
2026
2026
% global growth, April 2026 forecast
January 2026 forecast
Reference forecast
War disruption fades
by mid-2026
Adverse scenario
Prolonged disruption,
oil prices at $100 in
2026 and $75 in 2027
Severe scenario
Persistent shock,
oil prices at $110
into 2027
4
3
3.1
Down
1.3 pts
2.5
2
2.0
1
0
2025
2026
2027
2026
2026
% global growth, April 2026 forecast
January 2026 forecast
Reference forecast
War disruption fades
by mid-2026
Adverse scenario Prolonged
disruption, oil prices at $100
in 2026 and $75 in 2027
Severe scenario
Persistent shock, oil prices
at $110 into 2027
4
3
3.1
Down
1.3 pts
2.5
2
2.0
1
0
2025
2026
2027
2026
2026
% global growth, April 2026 forecast
January 2026 forecast
Reference
forecast
War disruption
fades by mid-
2026
Adverse
scenario
Prolonged
disruption, oil
prices at $100
in 2026 and
$75 in 2027
Severe
scenario
Persistent
shock, oil at
$110 into 2027
4
3
3.1
Down
1.3 pts
2.5
2
2.0
1
0
2025
2026
2027
2026
2026
% global growth, April 2026 forecast
January 2026 forecast
Reference forecast
War disruption
fades by mid-2026
Adverse scenario
Prolonged
disruption, oil prices
at $100 in 2026 and
$75 in 2027
Severe scenario
Persistent shock,
oil prices at $110
into 2027
4
3
3.1
Down
1.3 pts
2.5
2
2.0
1
0
2025
2026
2027
2026
2026
% global growth, April 2026 forecast
January 2026 forecast
Reference forecast
War disruption fades
by mid-2026
Adverse scenario
Prolonged disruption,
oil prices at $100 in
2026 and $75 in 2027
Severe scenario
Persistent shock,
oil prices at $110
into 2027
4
3
3.1
Down
1.3 pts
2.5
2
2.0
1
0
2025
2026
2027
2026
2026
% global growth, April 2026 forecast
January 2026 forecast
Reference forecast
War disruption fades
by mid-2026
Adverse scenario Prolonged
disruption, oil prices at $100
in 2026 and $75 in 2027
Severe scenario
Persistent shock, oil prices
at $110 into 2027
4
3
3.1
Down
1.3 pts
2.5
2
2.0
1
0
2025
2026
2027
2026
2026