Reform’s different voter groups are centred in different parts of the country

Proportion of each constituency’s Reform backers who fall into each voter group

Parties

% of Reform backers

who fall into each group

Conservatives

Lib Dems

Labour

25

30

35

40

20%

Greens

Plaid Cymru

SNP

Reform

Squeezed stewards

Evenly distributed across country. 65 seats where they’re over a third of Reform backers

Forecast winner

per seat

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Hitchin

Squeezed stewards: 42% of Reform backers

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Concentrated in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Sheffield Central

Reluctant reformers: 29%

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives:

37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth:

27%

Parties

% of Reform backers who

fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Lib Dems

Labour

25

30

35

40

20%

Plaid Cymru

Reform

SNP

Squeezed stewards

Evenly distributed across country. 65 seats where they’re over a third of Reform backers

Forecast winner per seat

Hitchin

Squeezed

stewards: 42% of

Reform backers

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Concentrated in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives: 37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth: 27%

Parties

% of Reform backers who

fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Lib Dems

Labour

25

30

35

40

20%

Plaid Cymru

Reform

SNP

Squeezed stewards

Evenly distributed across country. 65 seats where they’re over a third of Reform backers

Forecast winner per seat

Hitchin

Squeezed

stewards: 42% of

Reform backers

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Concentrated in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives: 37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth: 27%

Parties

% of Reform backers who fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Labour

25

30

35

40

20%

Lib Dems

Plaid

Cymru

Reform

SNP

Squeezed stewards

Evenly distributed across country. 65 seats where they’re over a third of Reform backers

Forecast winner per seat

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Hitchin

Squeezed

stewards: 42% of

Reform backers

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Concentrated in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives: 37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth: 27%

Parties

% of Reform backers who fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Labour

25

30

35

40

20%

Lib Dems

Plaid

Cymru

Reform

SNP

Working right

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Squeezed stewards

Evenly distributed across country. 65 seats where they’re over a third of Reform backers

Forecast winner per seat

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Hitchin

Squeezed

stewards: 42% of

Reform backers

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives: 37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth: 27%

Parties

% of Reform backers

who fall into each group

Conservatives

Labour

Lib Dems

25

30

35

40

20%

Greens

Plaid Cymru

SNP

Reform

Squeezed stewards

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Forecast winner

per seat

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Hitchin

Squeezed stewards: 42% of Reform backers

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Sheffield Central

Reluctant reformers: 29%

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives:

37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth:

27%

Parties

% of Reform backers who

fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Labour

Lib Dems

25

30

35

40

20%

Plaid Cymru

Reform

SNP

Squeezed stewards

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Forecast winner per seat

Hitchin

Squeezed stewards: 42% of Reform backers

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives: 37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth: 27%

Parties

% of Reform backers who

fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Labour

Lib Dems

25

30

35

40

20%

Plaid Cymru

Reform

SNP

Squeezed stewards

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Forecast winner per seat

Hitchin

Squeezed

stewards: 42% of Reform backers

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Parties

% of Reform backers who fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Labour

25

30

35

40

20%

Lib Dems

Plaid

Cymru

Reform

SNP

Squeezed stewards

Evenly distributed across country. 65 seats where they’re over a third of Reform backers

Forecast winner per seat

Hitchin

Squeezed

stewards: 42% of Reform backers

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives: 37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth: 27%

Parties

% of Reform backers who fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Labour

25

30

35

40

20%

Lib Dems

Plaid

Cymru

Reform

SNP

Squeezed stewards

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Working right

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Forecast winner per seat

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Hitchin

Squeezed

stewards: 42% of Reform backers

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives: 37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth: 27%

Parties

% of Reform backers who

fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Labour

Lib Dems

25

30

35

40

20%

Plaid Cymru

Reform

SNP

Squeezed stewards

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Forecast winner per seat

Hitchin

Squeezed

stewards: 42% of Reform backers

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives: 37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth: 27%

Parties

% of Reform backers who

fall into each group

Conservatives

Greens

Labour

Lib Dems

25

30

35

40

20%

Plaid Cymru

Reform

SNP

Squeezed stewards

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Forecast winner per seat

Hitchin

Squeezed

stewards: 42% of Reform backers

Clacton

Forecast Reform

vote: 56%

Reluctant reformers

Evenly spread share of Reform backers, but never more than 29%

Working right

Many in northern and 'red wall' towns. 28 seats where they're more than a third

Sheffield Central

Reluctant

reformers: 29%

Bolton North East

Working right: 41%

Hardline conservatives

In the south and former Tory strongholds, only five seats where more than a third

Contrarian youth

Centred in young urban seats. Never more than 27% of Reform backers

Godalming and Ash

Hardline conservatives: 37%

Poplar and Limehouse

Contrarian youth: 27%