Reeves is facing a shortfall against her fiscal rules

-5

5

-15

-10

£0bn

10

March 2025

forecast

£9.9bn

Winter fuel

changes

-£1.3bn

Disability

benefit changes

-£4.7bn

Lower tax

revenues

-£8.1bn

Higher debt

interest spending

-£4.7bn

Other forecast

spending changes

-£2.7bn

Central forecast

scenario*

-£11.7bn

-5

5

-15

-10

£0bn

10

March 2025

forecast

£9.9bn

Winter fuel

changes

-£1.3bn

Disability

benefit changes

-£4.7bn

Lower tax

revenues

-£8.1bn

Higher debt

interest spending

-£4.7bn

Other forecast

spending changes

-£2.7bn

Central forecast

scenario*

-£11.7bn

-5

5

-15

-10

£0bn

10

£9.9bn

March 2025 forecast

Winter fuel changes

-£1.3bn

-£4.7bn

Disability benefit changes

Lower tax revenues

-£8.1bn

Higher debt interest spending

-£4.7bn

-£2.7bn

Other forecast spending changes

Central forecast scenario*

-£11.7bn

-5

5

-15

-10

£0bn

10

£9.9bn

March 2025 forecast

Winter fuel changes

-£1.3bn

-£4.7bn

Disability benefit changes

Lower tax revenues

-£8.1bn

Higher debt interest spending

-£4.7bn

-£2.7bn

Other forecast spending changes

Central forecast scenario*

-£11.7bn