Polls underestimated Trump three elections in a row

Polling across three elections missed Trump’s level of support, though polling averages in 2024 were close to the actual results.

2016 Clinton v Trump

Polling lead, 8 Nov 3pts

Election result 2pts

50%

48%

46

46%

Polling Avgs

42

38

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Biden v Trump

Polling lead, 3 Nov 7pts

Election result 4pts

52%

51%

48

47%

Polling Avgs

44

40

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Harris v Trump

Polling lead, 31 Oct 1pt

Election result 2pts

55%

Polling Avgs

50%

48%

45

Last Guardian polling

average taken on 31 Oct

40

Nov

Aug

Sep

Oct

2016 Clinton v Trump

Polling lead, 8 Nov 3pts

Election result 2pts

50%

48%

46

46%

Polling Avgs

42

38

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Biden v Trump

Polling lead, 3 Nov 7pts

Election result 4pts

52%

51%

48

47%

Polling Avgs

44

40

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Harris v Trump

Polling lead, 31 Oct 1pt

Election result 2pts

55%

Polling Avgs

50%

48%

45

Last Guardian polling

average taken on 31 Oct

40

Nov

Aug

Sep

Oct

2016 Clinton v Trump

Polling lead, 8 Nov 3pts

Election result 2pts

50%

48%

46

46%

Polling Avgs

42

38

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Biden v Trump

Polling lead, 3 Nov 7pts

Election result 4pts

52%

51%

48

47%

Polling Avgs

44

40

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Harris v Trump

Polling lead, 31 Oct 1pt

Election result 2pts

55%

Polling Avgs

50%

48%

45

Last Guardian polling

average taken on 31 Oct

40

Nov

Aug

Sep

Oct

2016 Clinton v Trump

Polling lead, 8 Nov 3pts

Election result 2pts

50%

48%

46

46%

Polling Avgs

42

38

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Biden v Trump

Polling lead, 3 Nov 7pts

Election result 4pts

52%

51%

48

47%

Polling Avgs

44

40

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Harris v Trump

Polling lead, 31 Oct 1pt

Election result 2pts

55%

Polling Avgs

50%

48%

45

Last Guardian polling

average taken on 31 Oct

40

Nov

Aug

Sep

Oct

2016 Clinton v Trump

Polling lead, 8 Nov 3pts

Election result 2pts

50%

48%

46

46%

Polling Avgs

42

38

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Biden v Trump

Polling lead, 3 Nov 7pts

Election result 4pts

52%

51%

48

47%

Polling Avgs

44

40

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Harris v Trump

Polling lead, 31 Oct 1pt

Election result 2pts

55%

Polling Avgs

50%

48%

45

Last Guardian polling

average taken on 31 Oct

40

Nov

Aug

Sep

Oct