Trump is polling higher than he was at this point in 2016 and 2020

2016 Clinton v Trump

Clinton polling lead, 8 Nov 3.2pts

Election result

50%

46

42

38

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Biden v Trump

Biden polling lead, 3 Nov 7.2pts

Election result

52%

48

44

40

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Biden, Harris v Trump

50%

30 Aug

Harris +1.8

Biden drops out,

Harris becomes nominee

48

46

44

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Trump outperformed his polling levels in both 2016 and 2020

2016 Clinton v Trump

Clinton polling lead, 8 Nov 3.2pts

Election result

50%

46

42

38

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Biden v Trump

Biden polling lead, 3 Nov 7.2pts

Election result

52%

48

44

40

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Biden v Trump, Harris v Trump

50%

30 Aug

Harris +1.8

Biden drops out,

Harris becomes nominee

48

46

44

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

2016 Clinton v Trump

Clinton polling lead, 8 Nov 3.2pts

Election result

50%

46

42

38

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Biden v Trump

Biden polling lead, 3 Nov 7.2pts

Election result

52%

48

44

40

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Biden, Harris v Trump

50%

30 Aug

Harris +1.8

Biden drops out,

Harris becomes nominee

48

46

44

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Trump outperformed his polling levels in both 2016 and 2020

2016 Clinton v Trump

Clinton polling lead, 8 Nov 3.2pts

Election result

50%

46

42

38

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2020 Biden v Trump

Biden polling lead, 3 Nov 7.2pts

Election result

52%

48

44

40

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Biden v Trump, Harris v Trump

50%

30 Aug

Harris +1.8

Biden drops out,

Harris becomes nominee

48

46

44

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep