In 2020, some state-level polling averages missed final result by more than margin of error

Final 2020 polling averages from FiveThirtyEight (538) and RealClearPolitics (RCP), compared with actual result

Final 538 estimated lead

Final RCP estimated lead

Result

Biden

lead

Trump

lead

8

0pts

4

2

2

6

North Carolina

538’s average missed by nearly eight points

Arizona

Georgia

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

Correct

final RCP averages

Nevada

Michigan

Final 538 estimated lead

Final RCP estimated lead

Result

Biden lead

Trump lead

8

0pts

4

2

2

6

North Carolina

Trump win,

which some models didn’t call

Arizona

538’s final average missed by nearly eight points

Georgia

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

Correct final

RCP averages

Nevada

Michigan

Final 538 estimated lead

Final RCP estimated lead

Result

Biden

lead

Trump

lead

8

0pts

4

2

2

6

North Carolina

538’s average missed by nearly eight points

Arizona

Georgia

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

Correct

final RCP averages

Nevada

Michigan

Final 538 estimated lead

Final RCP estimated lead

Result

Biden lead

Trump lead

8

0pts

4

2

2

6

North Carolina

Trump win

which some models didn’t call

Arizona

538’s final average missed by nearly eight points

Georgia

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

Correct final

RCP averages

Nevada

Michigan