Election forecast models all agree on a Labour majority but disagree on the scale by up to more than 100 seats

Multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) polling, and poll average

Labour

Lib Dem

SNP

Plaid Cymru

Reform UK

Green

Others

Conservative

0 seats

326 needed for majority

650

Savanta 19 June

Labour 516

Survation 28 June

482

Electoral Calculus 1 July

469

WeThink 26 June

465

FT 29 June

459

Ipsos 18 June

453

ElectionMaps 1 July

452

Focaldata 24 June

451

JLP 30 June

450

Economist 28 June

441

Britain Predicts 29 June

436

YouGov 19 June

420

More in Common 19 June

406

Average

454

Labour

Lib Dem

SNP

Plaid Cymru

Reform UK

Green

Others

Conservative

0 seats

326 needed for majority

650

Savanta 19 June

516

Survation 28 June

482

Electoral Calculus 1 July

469

WeThink 26 June

465

FT 29 June

459

Ipsos 18 June

453

ElectionMaps 1 July

452

Focaldata 24 June

451

JLP 30 June

450

Economist 28 June

441

Britain Predicts 29 June

436

YouGov 19 June

420

More in Common 19 June

406

Average

454

Guardian graphic. Source: Peter Inglesby's aggregation of data from polling companies and political analysts. Models include multilevel regression and poststratification models (MRPs) and strong transition models (STM). Note: ‘Others’ figures include Northern Ireland seats, independents and the Speaker.