Labour reclaimed its

heartlands — but some

majorities are weak

Historical Labour and Conservative

majorities in the 'red wall' constituencies

since the 2010 election

Majority

Lib

Dem

Lab

Con

Ref

0%

5

10

15

20

25

Modelled*

Constituency (Old name)

24

2010

15

17

19

Dudley

Bassetlaw

Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes

Doncaster East & Isle of Axholme

Scunthorpe

Wolverhampton North East

Stoke-on-Trent North

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Bishop Auckland

Penistone & Stocksbridge

Rother Valley

Spen Valley

Ashfield

Tipton & Wednesbury

Bolsover

Darlington

Blackpool South

Normanton & Hemsworth

Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor

Hyndburn

Bradford South

West Bromwich

Gedling

Stoke-on-Trent Central

Halifax

Birmingham Northfield

Oldham East & Saddleworth

Chesterfield

Bolton North East

Bury South

Heywood & Middleton North

Coventry North West

Burnley

Lib Dem win

Labour reclaimed its heartlands — but some majorities are weak

Historical Labour and Conservative majorities in the

'red wall' constituencies since the 2010 election

0%

5

10

15

20

25

Lab majority

Con majority

Reform majority

Lib Dem majority

Modelled*

2024

2015

2017

2019

Constituency (Old name)

2010

Dudley

Bassetlaw

Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes

Doncaster East & Isle of Axholme

Scunthorpe

Wolverhampton North East

Stoke-on-Trent North

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Bishop Auckland

Penistone & Stocksbridge

Rother Valley

Spen Valley

Ashfield

Tipton & Wednesbury

Bolsover

Darlington

Blackpool South

Normanton & Hemsworth

Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor

Hyndburn

Bradford South

West Bromwich

Gedling

Stoke-on-Trent Central

Halifax

Birmingham Northfield

Oldham East & Saddleworth

Chesterfield

Bolton North East

Bury South

Heywood & Middleton North

Coventry North West

Burnley

Lib Dem win

Labour reclaimed its heartlands — but some majorities are weak

0%

5

10

15

20

25

Historical Labour and Conservative majorities in the 'red wall'

constituencies since the 2010 election

Lab majority

Con majority

Reform majority

Lib Dem majority

Modelled*

2024

2015

2017

2019

Constituency (Old name)

2010

Dudley

Bassetlaw

Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes

Doncaster East & Isle of Axholme

Scunthorpe

Wolverhampton North East

Stoke-on-Trent North

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Bishop Auckland

Penistone & Stocksbridge

Rother Valley

Spen Valley

Ashfield

Tipton & Wednesbury

Bolsover

Darlington

Blackpool South

Normanton & Hemsworth

Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor

Hyndburn

Bradford South

West Bromwich

Gedling

Stoke-on-Trent Central

Halifax

Birmingham Northfield

Oldham East & Saddleworth

Chesterfield

Bolton North East

Bury South

Heywood & Middleton North

Coventry North West

Burnley

Lib Dem win