Conservative heartlands
Mainly in the south-east, these seats have
been Conservative for more than a decade,
in some cases since the seat was created
Majority
Con
Lib Dem
0%
20
40
60
Projection
Modelled*
2010
15
17
19
24
Constituency (Old name)
Esher & Walton
Woking
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Byelection
Winchester
North Shropshire+
West Dorset
Wimbledon
South Devon (Totnes)
Chesham & Amersham+
Didcot & Wantage (Wantage)
Chichester
Newbury
Henley & Thame (Henley)
Surrey Heath
Chelmsford
+Lib Dems won these seats in byelections after 2019
Former Lib Dem strongholds
These seats – half of which are in the
south-west – have all swung from the
Lib Dems since the 2010 general election
Majority
Con
Lib Dem
0%
20
40
60
Projection
Modelled*
2010
15
17
19
24
Eastbourne
Cheltenham
Cheadle
Lewes
St Ives
Taunton & Wellington
(Taunton Deane)
Carshalton & Wallington
Hazel Grove
Yeovil
North Devon
Sutton & Cheam
Torbay
North Cornwall
Thornbury & Yate
North Norfolk
New constituencies
These constituencies have no clear
ancestor constituency from before the
boundary review
Majority
Con
Lib Dem
0%
20
40
60
Projection
Modelled*
2010
15
17
19
24
Guildford
South Cambridgeshire
Godalming & Ash
Chippenham
Dorking & Horley
No data
Wokingham
South Cotswolds
Honiton & Sidmouth
Harpenden & Berkhamsted
Bicester and Woodstock
Majorities over time in the 40 seats the Lib Dems could gain in the general election, according to polling-based models
Conservative heartlands
Mainly in the south-east, these seats have
been Conservative for more than a decade,
in some cases since the seat was created
0%
10
20
30
40
50
60
Con majority
Lib Dem majority
Modelled*
Projection
2024
2010
2015
2017
2019
Constituency (Old name)
Esher & Walton
Woking
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Winchester
Byelection
North Shropshire+
West Dorset
Wimbledon
South Devon (Totnes)
Chesham & Amersham+
Didcot & Wantage (Wantage)
Chichester
Newbury
Henley & Thame (Henley)
Surrey Heath
Chelmsford
+Lib Dems won these seats in byelections after 2019
Former Lib Dem strongholds
These seats – half of which are in the
south-west – have all swung from the
Lib Dems since the 2010 general election
0%
10
20
30
40
50
60
Con majority
Lib Dem majority
Projection
2024
Modelled*
2010
2015
2017
2019
Eastbourne
Cheltenham
Cheadle
Lewes
St Ives
Taunton & Wellington (Taunton Deane)
Carshalton & Wallington
Hazel Grove
Yeovil
North Devon
Sutton & Cheam
Torbay
North Cornwall
Thornbury & Yate
North Norfolk
New constituencies
These constituencies have no
clear ancestor constituency from
before the boundary review
0%
10
20
30
40
50
60
Con majority
Lib Dem majority
Modelled*
Projection
2024
2010
2015
2017
2019
Guildford
South Cambridgeshire
Godalming & Ash
Chippenham
Dorking & Horley
No data
Wokingham
South Cotswolds
Honiton & Sidmouth
Harpenden & Berkhamsted
Bicester and Woodstock