Latest polls predict a record swing to Labour

Electoral voting swing since 1945 – Butler swing shows swing to Labour as a negative value and swing to Conservatives as positive

-12.0

1945

2.8

1950

1.1

1951

1.7

1955

1.2

1959

-3.0

1964

-2.7

1966

4.8

1970

-0.9

1974f

-2.1

1974o

5.4

1979

4.0

1983

-1.8

1987

-2.0

1992

-10.2

1997

1.8

2001

3.2

2005

5.1

2010

-0.4

2015

-2.0

2017

4.5

2019

2024

-16.0 Projected

5.4

5.1

4.8

4.5

4.0

3.2

2.8

1.8

1.7

1.2

1.1

-0.4

-0.9

-1.8

-2.0

-2.0

-2.1

-2.7

-3.0

-10.2

-12.0

-16.0

projected

2024

1974o

1974f

2005

2001

2010

1966

1964

1950

2019

1983

1970

1959

1992

1945

2015

1987

1979

1997

2017

1955

1951

Sources: Projected swing is calculated based on the average vote shares in polls conducted between 21 and 27 June by BMG, DeltaPoll, Ipsos-Mori, JL Partners, MoreInCommon, Norstat, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta, Survation, Techne, WeThink, Verian, YouGov.Notional 2019 results: Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher