The Tories would need to reverse trends in the benefit caseload to save £12bn

Working-age disability benefit caseload, current trend versus Tory manifesto cuts

Historic

Next parliament, current trends

Tory cuts

5m

Projection

4

3

2

Equates to 1.6m claimants losing an average of £7,500 each per annum

1

0

2004-05

09-10

14-15

19-20

24-25

29-30

Historic

Next parliament, current trends

Tory cuts

5m

Projection

4

3

2

Equates to 1.6m claimants losing an average of £7,500 each per annum

1

0

2004-05

2009-10

2014-15

2019-20

2024-25

2029-30

Guardian graphic. Source:IFS analysis of OBR data. Note: England and Wales only