‘New Labour’ regain by swing scenario

Projected win for Starmer of seats won by Blair in 1997 and subsequently lost

0

50

100

150

200

12 point swing to Labour

114 seat gain

14 point

133

16 point

148

18 point

166

20 point

179

200 seat gain

179

150

166

148

133

100

114

50

0

12 point

14 point

16 point

18 point

20 point

Swing to Labour

Sources: Historical election results: H. Southall, O. Heath, P. Aucott, & C. Prosser (2024). Historical British voting data 1997-2019 redistricted to 2024 constituencies, version 1.1.2019 election results: C Rallings and M Thrasher