How Con-to-Reform switching shapes Labour gains from Tories

Labour seat gains from Tories in three scenarios of Con-to-Lab swing – and how they change with different levels of Conservative-to-Refom switching

Rate of Conservative-to-Reform switching:

8%

16%

24%

8 point Con-to-Lab swing scenario

109 Lab seat gain from Con

153

205

10 point Con-to-Lab swing

129

179

237

12 point Con-to-Lab swing

153

205

254

Rate of Conservative-to-Reform switching:

8%

16%

24%

300 Lab seat gains from Con

254

237

200

205

205

179

153

153

129

100

109

0

8 point

10 point

12 point

Con-to-Lab swing