Heart failure among those aged 30 and over is predicted nearly double by 2040

Number of diagnosed cases in 2019 and projections for 2040 among conditions with highest impact on health care and mortality. Ranked by percentage increase

2019

2040 projection

Heart failure

+92%

Atrial fibrillation

+51%

Diabetes

+49%

Dementia

+45%

COPD

+37%

Chronic kidney disease

+34%

Chronic pain

+32%

Cancer

+31%

Anxiety or depression

+16%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Millions of cases

2019

2040 projection

+92%

Heart failure

+51%

Atrial fibrillation

+49%

Diabetes

+45%

Dementia

+37%

COPD

+34%

Chronic kidney disease

+32%

Chronic pain

+31%

Cancer

+16%

Anxiety or depression

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Millions of cases

Guardian graphic. Guardian graphic. Source: Analysis of health care records and mortality data conducted by the Real Centre and the University of Liverpool. Note: COPD is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease