The potential shortfall in UK electricity supply under different low-carbon mix options

Number of hours a year supply is expected to fail to meet demand

2025

2028

2030

2033

2035

2038

2040

Consumer transformation scenario.

Complete switch in consumer behaviour*

0.6

1

0.8

0.3

0.6

0.9

0.9

Gas CCS**, hydrogen and battery storage

0.6

0.8

0.7

1.4

1.9

0.4

0.3

Nuclear, hydrogen and battery storage

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.7

2

0.5

0.4

Hydrogen and battery storage

0.6

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.6

0.6

0.4

Battery storage alone

0.6

0.8

0.7

12.7

27.9

15.1

9.3

2025

2028

2030

2033

2035

2038

2040

Consumer transformation scenario.

Complete switch in consumer behaviour*

0.6

1

0.8

0.3

0.6

0.9

0.9

Gas CCS**, hydrogen and battery storage

0.6

0.8

0.7

1.4

1.9

0.4

0.3

Nuclear, hydrogen and battery storage

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.7

2

0.5

0.4

Hydrogen and battery storage

0.6

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.6

0.6

0.4

Battery storage alone

0.6

0.8

0.7

12.7

27.9

15.1

9.3

2025

2028

2030

2033

2035

2038

2040

Consumer transformation scenario. Complete switch in consumer behaviour*

0.6

1

0.8

0.3

0.6

0.9

0.9

Gas CCS**, hydrogen and battery storage

0.6

0.8

0.7

1.4

1.9

0.4

0.3

Nuclear, hydrogen and battery storage

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.7

2

0.5

0.4

Hydrogen and battery storage

0.6

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.6

0.6

0.4

Battery storage alone

0.6

0.8

0.7

12.7

27.9

15.1

9.3