China’s CO2 emissions would need to fall 4-6% by 2025 to meet government carbon intensity targets

China’s historical CO2 emissions and pathways needed to meet targets

Actual emissions

Pre-Covid trend

12%

High

GDP

growth

Medium

11

Low

10

Forecast

9

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2025

Actual emissions

Pre-Covid trend

12%

Forecast

High

GDP growth

Medium

11

Low

10

9

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2025

Guardian graphic. Source: Carbon Brief, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Note: Carbon intensity is CO2 emissions per unit of economic output