How much lithium will be required to power US electric vehicles in 2050?

Scenarios based on battery size, vehicle ownership rates, and battery recyling

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to vehicle ownership

483m tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to vehicle ownership

306m

–37%

from

worst

case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership

100m

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership, widespread battery recycling

40m

–92%

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to vehicle ownership

483m tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to vehicle ownership

306m

–37% from

worst case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership

100m

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership, widespread battery recycling

40m

–92%

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to vehicle ownership

483m tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to vehicle ownership

306m

–37% from

worst case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership

100m

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership, widespread battery recycling

40m

–92%

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to vehicle ownership

483m tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to vehicle ownership

306m

–37% from

worst case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership

100m

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership, widespread battery recycling

40m

–92%

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to vehicle ownership

483m tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to vehicle ownership

306m

–37% from

worst case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership

100m

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership, widespread battery recycling

40m

–92%