How much lithium will be required to power US electric vehicles in 2050?

Scenarios based on 100% of vehicles on the road being electric by 2050, battery size, vehicle ownership rates, and battery recyling

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to

vehicle ownership rate

483k tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to

vehicle ownership rate

306k

–37%

from

worst

case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership rate

100k

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership rate, widespread battery recycling

40k

–92%

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to vehicle ownership rate

483k tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to vehicle ownership rate

306k

–37% from

worst case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership rate

100k

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership rate, widespread battery recycling

40k

–92%

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to vehicle ownership rate

483k tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to vehicle ownership rate

306k

–37% from

worst case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership rate

100k

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership rate, widespread battery recycling

40k

–92%

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to vehicle ownership rate

483m tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to vehicle ownership rate

306m

–37% from

worst case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership rate

100m

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership rate, widespread battery recycling

40m

–92%

Worst case

Larger battery, no change to vehicle ownership rate

483k tons of lithium

Status quo

Medium battery, no change to vehicle ownership rate

306k

–37% from

worst case

Optimistic

Medium battery, best case for

reducing vehicle ownership rate

100k

–79%

Best case

Small battery, best case for reducing vehicle

ownership rate, widespread battery recycling

40k

–92%