Mechanical calculations to illustrate required timing of restrictions under simple assumptions
Desire to keep daily Covid-19 admissions with Omicron below
1,000
3,000
5,000
Assume overall vaccine efficacy against severe disease results in an infection hospitalisation rate of
0.5
1
percent
2
0.5
1
percent
2
0.5
1
percent
2
Last date at which stringent national measures can be introduced while keeping admissions below threshold
13
10
December
8
17
14
December
12
19
16
December
14
Daily Omicron infections on date measures required (lags mean these won’t be observed on that day)
47
20
thousand
12
143
62
thousand
36
248
108
thousand
62
Mechanical calculations to illustrate required timing of restrictions under simple assumptions
Desire to keep daily Covid-19 admissions with Omicron below
Assume overall vaccine efficacy against severe disease results in an infection hospitalisation
rate of
Last date at which stringent national measures can be introduced while keeping admissions below threshold
Daily Omicron infections on date measures required (lags mean these won’t be observed on that day)
0.5%
13 Dec
47,000
1,000
1%
10 Dec
20,000
2%
8 Dec
12,000
0.5%
17 Dec
143,000
3,000
1%
14 Dec
62,000
2%
12 Dec
36,000
0.5%
19 Dec
248,000
5,000
1%
16 Dec
108,000
2%
14 Dec
62,000