Global temperatures are likely to rise more than 2C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, with even the most optimistic scenario passing the Paris agreement’s 1.5C goal

Where we were Pre-industrial average

Where we are now in 2021

Paris agreement goal at Cop21

+0C

+1.2

+1.5

+2

+3

Scenarios

1. Optimistic,

best case

+1.8

Full implementation of all announced targets including net zero targets, binding long-term targets and nationally determined contributions

2. Pledges

and targets

+2.1

Full implementation of submitted and binding long-term targets and 2030 NDC targets

3. 2030

targets only

+2.4

Full implementation of 2030 NDC targets

4. Policies

and action

+2.7

Real world action based on current policies

Where we were

Pre-industrial

average

Where we

are now

in 2021

Paris agreement goal

December 2015

at Cop21

+0C

+1.2

+1.5

+2

+3

+4

Scenarios

Full implementation of all announced targets including net zero targets, binding long-term targets and nationally determined contributions

+1.8

1. Optimistic, best case

Full implementation of submitted and binding long-term targets and 2030 NDC targets

+2.1

2. Pledges and targets

Full implementation of 2030 NDC targets

+2.4

3. 2030 targets only

Real world action based on current policies

+2.7

4. Policies and action