Eight-week scenarios for daily hospital admissions in England over a range of effective R values reflecting the possible impact of increased contacts from 6 September
Highly unlikely unless waning immunity were to play a greater role or a new variant of concern were to emerge
Epidemic trajectory likely to sit between R=1.1 and R=1.5
R=2
6,000
4,000
R=1.5
2,000
R=1.1
0
24 Aug
7 Sep
21 Sep
5 Oct
19 Oct
(6 weeks)
2 Nov
Modelling suggests a likely rise in Covid hospital admissions
Eight-week scenarios for daily hospital admissions in England over a range of effective R values reflecting the possible impact of increased contacts from 6 September
R=2
Highly unlikely unless waning immunity were to play a greater role or a new variant of concern were to emerge
6,000
4,000
Epidemic trajectory likely to sit between R=1.1 and R=1.5
R=1.5
2,000
R=1.1
0
10 Aug
24 Aug
7 Sep
21 Sep
5 Oct
19 Oct
(6 weeks)
2 Nov