Climate model simulations show how human factors have contributed to a rise in global surface temperatures

Natural drivers only (solar and volcanic activity)

Natural and human drivers combined

Observed

1.5C

Change in global surface temperature

relative to 1850-1900

1.0

‘Very likely’ range

of simulations

0.5

0

-0.5

1900

1950

2000

1850

1.5C change in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900

Natural drivers only

(solar and volcanic activity)

Natural and human

drivers combined

1.0

‘Very likely’ range

of simulations

Observed

0.5

0

-0.5

1850

1900

1950

2000

2020