The OBR's new central scenario shows that the UK economy may not return to its pre-crisis levels until the end of 2022

Index - 2019 Q4 = 100

Scenario period

March

forecast

100

90

80

Upside

scenario

Central

scenario

Downside

scenario

70

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Upside scenario Activity rebounds relatively quickly with no enduring economic scarring

 

Central scenario Output recovers more slowly. Real GDP is 3% lower in 2025 than in March forecast

 

Downside scenario Output recovers even more slowly, only returning to its pre-virus peak in 2024

Index - 2019 Q4 = 100

Scenario period

March forecast

100

90

Upside scenario Activity rebounds relatively quickly with no enduring economic scarring

Central scenario Output recovers more slowly. Real GDP is 3% lower in 2025 than in March forecast

Downside scenario Output recovers even more slowly, only returning to its pre-virus peak in 2024

80

70

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025