New cases fall away to low levels with monitoring and contact tracing systems robust enough to control occasional outbreaks. But virus is still out there and may occasionally flare up

Cases rise

rapidly in

the initial

outbreak

2020

2021

Guardian graphic. Note: curves shown in these scenarios are for illustrative purposes only. What actually occurs could be a variation on any one of them

New cases fall away to low levels with monitoring and contact tracing systems robust enough to control occasional outbreaks. But virus is still out there and may occasionally flare up

Cases rise

rapidly in

the initial

outbreak

2020

2021

Guardian graphic. Note: curves shown in these scenarios are for illustrative purposes only. What actually occurs could be a variation on any one of them