Under a ‘do nothing’ scenario, and if Covid-19 doubles a person's individual risk of dying, there could be 293,991 excess deaths in a year
Risk of dying
increased 1.5 times
above normal risk
Risk
doubled
Risk
trebled
146,996
293,991
587,982
excess deaths
Under a mitigation scenario, with 10% of the population affected but risk is trebled, there could be 73,498 excess deaths in a year
18,374
36,749
73,498
Under a partial suppression scenario, where Covid-19 affects 1% of the population, excess deaths could be much lower
1,837
3,675
7,350
Risk of dying
increased 1.5 times
above normal risk
Risk doubled
Risk trebled
Under a ‘do nothing’ scenario, and if Covid-19 doubles a person's individual risk of dying, there could be 293,991 excess deaths in a year
146,996
293,991
587,982
excess deaths
Under a mitigation scenario, with 10% of the population affected but risk is trebled, there could be 73,498 excess deaths in a year
18,374
36,749
73,498
Under a partial suppression scenario, where Covid-19 affects 1% of the population, excess deaths could be much lower
1,837
3,675
7,350