MPs have voted to pass Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement bill meaning Brexit will almost certainly happen on 31 January

Before 31 January

Withdrawal agreement bill must clear House of Lords. UK and European parliaments must formally ratify Brexit deal

11pm, 31 January

UK leaves the EU on terms of Johnson’s deal. Transition period begins – UK is still in customs union and single market

25 February

EU expected to agree mandate for trade negotiations with the UK

1 July

EU and UK aim to agree fishing quotas for 2021. Deadline for UK to request transition period extension

Not

requested

Requested

31 December

Have the UK and EU negotiated a free trade deal in 11 months?

One-year extension places deadline at 31 Dec 2021. Two- year = 31 Dec 2022

Yes

No

UK could crash into trading with the EU on WTO terms. Four-year alignment between Northern Ireland and EU begins

Transition ends. New trading relationship begins

October 2024

Stormont votes on whether to continue this alignment for a further four or eight years

Before 31 January

Withdrawal agreement bill must clear House of Lords. UK and European parliaments must formally ratify Brexit deal

11pm, 31 January

UK leaves the EU on terms of Johnson’s deal. Transition period begins – UK is still in customs union and single market

25 February

EU expected to agree mandate for trade negotiations with the UK

1 July

EU and UK aim to agree fishing quotas for 2021. Deadline for UK to request transition period extension

Not

requested

Requested

One-year extension places deadline at 31 December 2021. Two-year = 31 December 2022

31 December

Have the UK and EU negotiated a free trade deal in 11 months?

No

Yes

UK could crash into trading with the EU on WTO terms. Four-year alignment between Northern Ireland and EU begins

Transition ends. New trading relationship begins

October 2024

Stormont votes on whether to continue this alignment for a further four or eight years