How the votes for Theresa May’s plan B could stack up

Narrow win

May’s deal with changes to the backstop

323

Loyalist payroll, Conservatives against no deal, Brexiters, DUP, Labour deal-backers, three independents

Win

Extend article 50 to stop no deal

331

Tories for 2nd ref, Conservatives against no deal, Labour loyalists, Labour for 2nd ref, Labour against 2nd ref, Other parties, eight independents

Heavy loss

A second referendum if neither May nor Corbyn backed it

131

Tories for 2nd ref, Labour for 2nd ref, Other parties

Loss

A second referendum with Labour backing

286

Tories for 2nd ref, Labour loyalists, Labour for 2nd ref, Other parties, five independents

Win

A second referendum with government backing

484

Loyalist payroll, Conservatives against no deal, Tories for 2nd ref, Labour loyalists, Labour for 2nd ref, Other parties, five independents

Win

A soft Brexit deal with a customs union with government and Labour backing

392

Loyalist payroll, Conservatives against no deal, Tories for 2nd ref, Labour loyalists, Labour against 2nd ref, five independents

Narrow win

Win

May’s deal with changes to the backstop

Extend article 50 to stop no deal

323

331

Loyalist payroll, Conservatives against no deal, Brexiters, DUP, Labour deal-backers, three independents

Tories for 2nd ref, Conservatives against no deal, Labour loyalists, Labour for 2nd ref, Labour against 2nd ref, Other parties, eight independents

Heavy loss

Loss

A second referendum if neither May nor Corbyn backed it

A second referendum with Labour backing

131

Tories for 2nd ref, Labour for 2nd ref, Other parties

286

Tories for 2nd ref, Labour loyalists, Labour for 2nd ref, Other parties, five independents

Win

Win

A second referendum with government backing

A soft Brexit deal with a customs union with government and Labour backing

392

Loyalist payroll, Conservatives against no deal, Tories for 2nd ref, Labour loyalists, Labour against 2nd ref, five independents

484

Loyalist payroll, Conservatives against no deal, Tories for 2nd ref, Labour loyalists, Labour for 2nd ref, Other parties, five independents