According to government modelling, UK GDP would be 9.3% lower than today after a no-deal Brexit without net migration from the EU and EEA

Zero EU/EEA net migration

No change to migration

8

%

2

4

6

No deal

9.3%

7.7

Canada-style free trade agreement

6.7

4.9

Norway-style agreement

1.4

Alternative Chequers scenario

3.9

2.1

Chequers

2.5

0.6

Zero EU/EEA net migration

No change to migration

8

%

2

4

6

No deal

9.3%

7.7

Canada-style free trade agreement

6.7

4.9

Norway-style agreement

1.4

Alternative Chequers scenario

3.9

2.1

Chequers

2.5

0.6

Guardian graphic. Source: UK government. Note: Figures quoted are central estimate of a range of outcomes. Norway-style agreement would not curb migration. Alternative Chequers scenario based on Chequers with 50% higher non-tariff barriers