In 2013, the coalition led by the centre-left Democratic party won a narrow victory in overall vote share. Under the 2013 electoral law, this gave them a guaranteed majority of seats in the lower house
Centre-left
Five Star
Movement
Others
Centrists
Centre-right
29.6%
Share of vote
10.6
25.6
29.2
5
340
Seats
45
108
124
13
A modelling exercise by the Italian parliament calculated how the seats would have been allotted in 2013 under the system to be used in 2018. The outcome is much more proportional
29.6%
10.6
25.6
29.2
5
122 Seats awarded by proportional representation
42
107
115
13
0
41
96
94 Seats awarded in FPTP constituencies
A study by an Italian thinktank updated the model to reflect current polling. Despite loud complaints from the Five Star Movement, the forecast is that the new system will be much fairer to them than the old (though still probably less fair than a purely PR system)
31.4%
5.2
27.3
32.2
3.9
126
21
110
129
13
78
0
42
111
Guardian graphic. Sources: Italian interior ministry,
Italian chamber of deputies and Società Italiana
di Studi Elettorali
In 2013, the coalition led by the centre-left Democratic party won a narrow victory in overall vote share. Under the 2013 electoral law, this gave them a guaranteed majority of seats in the lower house
Centre-left
Centrists
Five Star Movement
Centre-right
Others
29.6%
Share of vote
10.6
25.6
29.2
5
50%
340
Seats
45
108
124
13
A modelling exercise by the Italian parliament calculated how the seats would have been allotted in 2013 under the system to be used in 2018. The outcome is much more proportional
29.6%
Share of vote
10.6
25.6
29.2
5
122
Seats awarded by proportional representation
94
Seats awarded in FPTP constituencies
42
0
107
41
115
96
13
A study by an Italian thinktank updated the model to reflect current polling. Despite loud complaints from the Five Star Movement, the forecast is that the new system will be much fairer to them than the old (though still probably less fair than a purely PR system)
31.4%
Share of vote
5.2
27.3
32.2
3.9
126
78
21
0
110
42
129
111
13
Guardian graphic. Sources: Italian interior ministry, Italian chamber of deputies, Società Italiana di Studi Elettorali