Higher income countries will see a decline in population by 2050

High income

Upper middle-income

50 live births per 1,000 people

40

Birth rate

30

More deaths

than births

by 2050

More deaths

than births

by 2040

20

10

0

10

20

Natural growth rate

The difference between the

birth rate and death rate

30

Death rate

40

50 deaths per 1,000 people

2050

2100

2050

2016

2016

1960

1960

Lower-middle-income

Low-income

50 live births per 1,000 people

40

30

20

10

0

10

20

30

40

50 deaths per 1,000 people

2050

2100

2050

2016

2016

1960

1960

Neither low-income countries or lower-middle-income countries will have a negative growth rate by 2100, meaning their populations will continue growing into the 22nd century

High-income

Upper middle-income

50 live births per 1,000 people

40

Birth rate

30

More deaths

than births

by 2050

More deaths

than births

by 2040

20

10

0

10

20

Natural growth rate

The difference between the

birth rate and death rate

30

Death rate

40

50 deaths per 1,000 people

2050

2100

2050

2100

2016

2016

1960

1960

Lower-middle-income

Low-income

50 live births per 1,000 people

40

30

20

10

0

10

20

30

40

50 deaths per 1,000 people

2050

2100

2050

2100

2016

2016

1960

1960

 

Neither low-income countries or lower-middle-income

countries will have a negative growth rate by 2100,

meaning their populations will continue growing into the

22nd century

High-income

Upper middle-income

Lower middle-income

Low-income

50 live births per 1,000 people

40

Birth rate

30

More deaths

than births

by 2050

More deaths

than births

by 2040

20

10

0

10

20

30

 

Neither low-income countries or

lower-middle-income countries will

have a negative growth rate by 2100

Natural growth rate

The difference between the birth rate and

death rate. Once the natural growth rate

becomes negative the population starts

to decline, assuming no net migration

Death rate

40

50 deaths per 1,000 people

2050

2100

2050

2100

2050

2100

2050

2100

2016

2016

2016

2016

1960

1960

1960

1960

High-income

Upper middle-income

Lower middle-income

Low-income

50 live births per 1,000 people

40

Birth rate

30

More deaths

than births

by 2050

More deaths

than births

by 2040

20

10

0

10

20

30

 

Neither low-income countries or

lower-middle-income countries will

have a negative growth rate by 2100

Natural growth rate

The difference between the birth rate and

death rate. Once the natural growth rate

becomes negative the population starts

to decline, assuming no net migration

Death rate

40

50 deaths per 1,000 people

2050

2100

2050

2100

2050

2100

2050

2100

2016

2016

2016

2016

1960

1960

1960

1960

Notes: Data is based on five-year periods, with the figure taken from the final year of each period