Typical pay growth

Q4 2016 scenarios

2.9% High prod/low CPI

2.4%

2.1% Central prod/ CPI

1.5%

0.9% Low prod/high CPI

2015

13

11

09

07

05

03

2001

Pre-crisis trend 2.2%

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

Year-on-year growth in real median

hourly pay, %

Outturn | Estimate

Q4 2016 scenarios

2.9% High prod/low CPI

2.4%

2.1% Central prod/ CPI

1.5%

0.9% Low prod/high CPI

2015

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

Pre-crisis trend 2.2%

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

Year-on-year growth in real median hourly pay, %

Outturn | Estimate

Q4 2016 scenarios

2.9% High prod/low CPI

2.4%

2.1% Central prod/ CPI

1.5%

0.9% Low prod/high CPI

2015

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

Pre-crisis trend 2.2%

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

Year-on-year growth in real median hourly pay, %

Outturn | Estimate

Q4 2016 scenarios

2.9% High prod/low CPI

2.4%

2.1% Central prod/ CPI

1.5%

0.9% Low prod/high CPI

2015

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

Pre-crisis trend 2.2%

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

Year-on-year growth in real median hourly pay, %

Outturn | Estimate