Trump nominates a successor
Trump will choose from a previously released list of potential picks
Judiciary committee hearings
The Senate judiciary committee will consider Trump’s nomination. The committee of 11 Republican and 10 Democratic senators will question the nominee and a slew of witness testimonies
Committee votes
Nomination passes
The likely result. The committee's loyal GOP majority should make this a shoo-in
Nomination fails
Nominees have fallen at this stage before, usually as a result of a scandal. If the committee does find something major they could decline to pass the nominee. Given Republican control of the committee, this would be a surprise
Nomination rejected
Full Senate vote
Following a rule change last year by Senate Republicans, the nominee would require a simple majority of voting senators
Nuclear option
The Democrats resort to an extreme procedural move — such as denying Republicans a quorum by refusing to attend the Senate — to block the nomination. Such a move would be unprecedented for the US Congress
Nomination unable to be confirmed
Senate votes
Vote passes
The Republicans' majority makes this the likely outcome. If everyone sticks to party-line, the Senate will confirm Trump's nomination
Vote fails
The Republicans' majority is slim, and one or two Republican defections on hot-button issues such as abortion could be possible. The delicacy of this dynamic may guide the White House toward a more moderate nominee
Nomination passes