Predicting El Niño blindfolded?

The Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) network was deployed in the early 1990s specifically to help give early warnings of El Niños. But budget cuts at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has seen maintenance stopped and the buoys failing.

In January, an editorial in the journal Nature warned: “To save a few million dollars, NOAA has left the world partially blind to a phenomenon that can cause tens of billions of dollars in damage.”

Michael McPhaden, a senior NOAA scientist who headed the TAO project until 2005, said: “It’s the most important climate phenomenon on the planet, and we have blinded ourselves to it by not maintaining this array.”

Tim Stockdale, at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, said: “They have let the observation system fall apart and it's unfortunate timing, as this is the first time they have been in such poor repair. However, we are at the stage now when the signal is big enough to be confident of an El Niño in 2014.”

Data is also gathered by Argo floats and satellites but the TAO network is central and further deterioration of the array will delay future El Niño forecasts.